By-Election Results Part 2 – Not quite as the Media Spin
A Long Way Until the General Election
Well I was again interested to see the results of the two by-elections brought about by the ousting, or standing down of Conservative MP’s. Like my Blog last July these mid-term By Elections were self-inflicted by the Tories.
Now you all know my political persuasion and that I am more blue rather than red or orange, but I am again trying to look at the results in rather more detail than the media headlines and political spin being portrayed.
As with all mid term by-lections the Government is likely to be shown the dissatisfaction of the electorate and yesterday’s were no exception, and with the issues the government are having, the outcome didn’t look optimistic for the Tories. This despite Labour seemingly also still showing some Antisemitic tendencies.
Now the headlines show that Labour overturned large conservative majorities.
However these are on the back of a vastly reduced turn outs, which seem to be overlooked somewhat by the media.
Now spin these results as you will, but based upon the government’s current standing and apparent current popularity of Labour, shouldn’t Labour have perhaps done even better if it expects to win the next general election.
The Conservatives were no doubt expecting this as RS tried to play down the issues he still has within his party, and trying to convince the electorate that he is the man for the job.
I am also sure they are possibly quite relieved with the outcome, especially when you drill down into the figures
The turnouts at both votes was down by about 50% to only 35% of the electorate compared with the normal turn out for a General Election being about 70%.
Labour managed to get only similar voting number as the 2019 General Election, a mere 16% of the electorate and now have small majorities, in now marginal seats.
I conclude that most conservatives decided to show their displeasure by not bothering to vote. Why would they, as they are pissed off like everyone, but would you or they trust a Labour government, well maybe, but maybe not.
The parties who are moaning the most about the government, and you would have wanted to demonstrate their displeasure the most, apparently only managed to obtain similar voting numbers to those they got at the 2019 election, or less in Kingswood. Lib Dems were nowhere to be seen.
Reform Party, though made a surprising good show, and could prove a torn in the side of the Conservatives come the GE.
Neither result on figures, was particularly ringing endorsement of Labour.
No doubt at the General Election the electorate will be out in force, but in my mind these normal conservative seats are most likely to return blue, albeit with vastly reduced majorities, the Labour candidates may have pretty short spells in the House of Commons.
Let’s be clear the Lib Dems will never be a majority party, but they and the Reform Party are likely to put a dent in the huge conservative majority in parliament, while if Labour realistically thinks it is to form the next government, it will need to do better than the underlying trend in these by elections.
Labour won the seats, but that was a forgone conclusion. KS though is clearly not getting carried away by the results, he would be foolish to do that.
There are many likely twists and turns before the GE, and despite the moderate, but left of centre media spin on yesterday’s results, a Labour landslide is unlikely.
If you view my more recent General Election prediction blog, which still holds true, well just about:-
The General Election will be different, it won’t be a Tory landslide like 2019, we are unlikely to see that ever again, similarly are Labour likely to win an overall majority? Possible, but not I’m not totally convinced, based on yesterday’s voting, but my blue tinted glasses may well be cloaking my judgement. Labour could well be the party with the most seats, but may struggle to get an overall majority.
As I have said previously, if you are Red or Blue you will most likely vote that way, regardless of current issues. The established Tory or Socialists seats will remain as they have as always, so we are left with the 100 or so seats that are marginal, and the winners of these seats will form the next government.
But no matter what your circumstances, and more importantly when there is an election, then please, take up your right and put your X in the box, but as I have stated previously, it may not make two ha’pence of difference as to the outcome…..that can only be decided in the true marginal seats where the floating voter will decide the next Government…….they are the ones that potential MP’s and political commentators should be striving to convince, the faithful Red or Blue are a loyal but lost cause in an election and yesterday’s results a mere moment in time in a government hoping for more improvement prior to the General Election later this year……
