By-Election Results – Not quite as the Media Spin?
Not a Ringing Endorsement for Labour
Well I was interested to see the results of the recent three by-elections brought about by Conservative resignations, BJ, being the most prominent.
Now you all know my political persuasion and that I am more blue rather than red or orange, but I am trying to look at the results in rather more detail than the media headlines and political spin being portrayed.
As with all mid-term by-lections the Government is likely to be shown the dissatisfaction of the electorate and yesterday’s were no exception, and with the issues the government are having with high inflation and interest rates, plus higher prices than normal, the outcome didn’t look optimistic for the Tories.
Now the headlines show that Labour overturned a conservative 20k majority in Selby, The Lib Dems overturned a 19k majority in Frume, while the Tories just held onto Uxbridge. However this is on the back of a vastly reduced turn out.
Now spin these results as you will, but based upon the government’s current standing and apparent current popularity of Labour, shouldn’t Labour have perhaps done better if it expects to win the next general election.
The Conservatives were no doubt expecting worse, so I am sure they are possibly quietly quite pleased with the outcome especially when you drill down into the figures. (See figures at the end if you are remotely interested).
The turnouts at all three votes was down to about 45% of the electorate compared with the normal turn out for a General Election being about 75%, so in my mind most conservatives decided to show their displeasure by not bothering to vote. Why would they, as they are pissed off like everyone, but would you or they trust a Labour government, well maybe, but maybe not.
The parties who are moaning the most about the government and you would have wanted to demonstrate their displeasure the most, apparently only managed to obtain similar voting numbers to those they got at the 2019 election.
Not a particularly swinging endorsement of Labour or Lib Dems. Both of these victories were won with a meagre 20% or 24% of the electoral voters, despite the media reporting 55% and 45% percentage of those that could be bothered to actually vote, rather different takes on the turnout.
No doubt at the General Election the electorate will be out in force, but in my mind these normal conservative seats are most likely to return blue, albeit with reduced majorities.
However let’s be clear the Lib Dems will never be a majority party, but will probably put a dent in the huge conservative majority in parliament, while if Labour realistically thinks it is to form the next government, it will need to do better than the underlying trend in these three by elections. Tactical voting may well be a significant factor.
They achieved one out of three seats on offer, hardly a comprehensive endorsement of socialist policy, of which KS has still to say where he will stand on most issues, but what’s new there.
The General Election will be different, it won’t be a Tory landslide like 2019, we are unlikely to see that ever again, similarly are Labour likely to win an overall majority, possible, but not really likely based on yesterday’s voting. They could well be the party with the most seats, but may struggle to get an overall majority.
As I have said previously, if you are Red or Blue you will most likely vote that way, regardless of current issues. The established Tory or Socialists seats will remain as they have as always, so we are left with the 100 or so seats that are marginal, and the winners of these seats will form the next government.
But no matter what your circumstances, and more importantly when there is an election, then please, take up your right and put your X in the box, but as I have stated previously, it may not make two ha’pence of difference as to the outcome…..that can only be decided in the true marginal seats where the floating voter will decide the next Government…….they are the ones that potential MP’s and political commentators should be striving to convince, the faithful Red or Blue are a loyal but lost cause in an election and yesterday’s results a mere moment in time in a government hoping for more improvement prior to the General Election possibly next May or more likely even later in the year depending on how RS feels his chances are of victory.……
| 2019 General Election Results | 2023 By-Election Results |
| Uxbridge 2019 | Uxbridge 2023 |
| Conservative 25,351 | Conservative 13,965 |
| Labour 18,141 | Labour 13,470 |
| Lib Dems 3,026 | Lib Dems 525 |
| Green Party 1.090 | Green Party 893 |
| Cons Majority 7,210 | Cons Majority 526 |
| Turnout 68.5% | Turnout 46.1% |
| Electorate 70,365 | (16,000 less voters) |
| Selby 2019 | Selby 2023 |
| Conservative 33,995 | Conservative 12,295 |
| Labour 13,858 | Labour 16,456 |
| Lib Dems 4,843 | Lib Dems 1,188 |
| Green Party 1.823 | Green Party 1,838 |
| Cons Majority 20,137 | Lab Majority 4,161 |
| Turnout 72% | Turnout 46% |
| Electorate 78,398 | (20,000 less voters) |
| Frume 2019 | Frume 2023 |
| Conservative 36,230 | Conservative 10,179 |
| Lib Dems 17,017 | Lib Dems 21,187 |
| Labour 8,354 | Labour 1,009 |
| Green Party 3,291 | Green Party 3,944 |
| Cons Majority 19,213 | Lib Dem Majority 11,008 |
| Turnout 75.6% | Turnout 44% |
| Electorate 85,866 | (27,000 less voters) |
